The multipolar world that is coming brings significant changes. What seemed like science fiction yesterday will be reality tomorrow.
The immediate, short-term consequences in the region will be that Kosovo will almost certainly be reintegrated into Serbia, as no one has an interest in defending it. In the medium term, Slovenia will fall into one of the spheres of influence and lose its political independence. If it ends up in the wrong sphere, this will also mean the end of democracy.
This is why next year's elections will be critical. If the socialist scenario from the previous elections repeats itself, it will be disastrous for our nation. In the times ahead, the country cannot be led by influencers nor can the Ministry of Defense be run by a real estate dealer (or a civilian, as has been the tradition so far). Instead, it must be led by the most experienced soldier in the country. Developing nuclear weapons might still seem crazy—but in reality, this is already a topic of secret discussions at the highest levels of several mid-sized European nations.
To those who still do not understand why the European leadership is so concerned- these changes are not just a passing trend caused by Trump but a long-term shift that Trump only accelerated. This trend—already two decades old—is American isolationism."America First" is an ideological victory for the Russian model of a multipolar world. It means that the U.S. will now focus on its primary interests—its own continent (Canada), its immediate surroundings (Greenland), and the Pacific—while leaving Europe to fend for itself. And when the world divides into three or four spheres of influence, if we persist in our current approach, we will be absorbed into one of them—or worse, into two— instead of establishing our own.
This leads to the most far-reaching transformation. The entire European welfare model is built on U.S. security guarantees. When the U.S. relocates its military capabilities away from Europe, we will be defenseless, vulnerable, and blind. And whoever we turn to for protection will provide it at a much lower quality and a much higher cost. No one will pamper us anymore, and defense spending will no longer be diverted into social programs. This means a radical reform of the European welfare state—or, in other words, the death of the European welfare model as we know it.